Luck - A president's best jobs plan
According to CNN Money:
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Today's troubles in the U.S. economy and labor market could very well turn out to be a lucky break for the next president, no matter who is elected.
Economists say that the current job losses and problem of rising unemployment will come to an end sometime in 2009.
And that will be perfect timing for whoever has moved into the Oval Office.
"Almost no matter what a president does, there should be employment growth during the first part of his term, because when the rate is high, it tends to go back down," said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisors. "On the other side of that coin, if you come into the office when the unemployment rate is unusually low, it's likely to go up."
When the Labor Department on Thursday reports the unemployment rate for June, economists are forecasting that employers will have shaved an additional 50,000 jobs from their payrolls, the sixth straight month that the economy will have lost jobs.
And even though the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic activity, was up at a modest 1% annual rate in the first quarter, a growing consensus among economists is that the economy fell into a recession either in late 2007 or early this year.
But post-World War II recessions typically last between eight and 18 months before the business cycle kick ins and spurs economic growth. Most economists, including many of those who now see a recession, believe growth will return later this year. Even most of those who see a longer recession are projecting the economy will turn around in early 2009.... click to continue.
